| Economic Update - January 2012 |
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It’s Not All Gloom And Doom | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Twice-yearly the OECD publishes growth forecasts for the world’s largest economies. November’s report lowered expectations and said the euro zone has fallen into recession. It also warned that the bloc’s debt crisis, now affecting countries previously seen as safe havens, could “massively escalate economic disruption if not addressed.” Here are some country-by-country highlights: U.S. - 2012 growth forecast 2.0% vs 1.7% in 2011. Economic recovery lost significant momentum. Equity market losses and house-price falls are weighing on households. Demand will be restrained for some time. Gradual improvements are seen after mid-2012. Euro Area - 2012 growth forecast 0.2% vs 1.6%. Recovery stalled amid escalating sovereign debt crisis. Swift mobilization of financial resources is needed. They will have risks from slow growth, sovereign debt, and weakness in bank system and lack of policy cohesion. Germany - 2012 growth forecast 0.6% vs 3.0%. They face a period of weakness amid lower global exports, investment. Economic activity will rebound during 2012. Fiscal situation will improve. Unemployment will likely remain near historic lows. U.K. - 2012 growth forecast 0.5% vs 0.9%. Weak international demand, consumer belt-tightening have halted recovery. Further quantitative measures are warranted. Fiscal consolidation has bolstered credibility. Growth will pick up during 2012 as exports and consumption recovers. France - 2012 growth forecast 0.3% vs 1.6%.They may have entered a short, shallow recession. Deteriorating job creation will drive unemployment rate up to 10.4% at end-2012. Italy - 2012 economy forecast will contract 0.5% from 0.7% growth in 2011. Recovery has lost momentum. Output will decline into 2012. They need to fully implement an emergency program and fiscal tightening to ensure sustainability.
So, how does the US stand? You will find the full report at www.oecd.org
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